Portland’s Year-End Vacancy Rate from Census, Plus All the Expert Forecasts on Vacancy & Rent Growth for 2014
The U.S. Census Bureau is reporting that the
Portland/Vancouver /Beaverton vacancy rate rose from 2.1 percent in Q2 and
Q3 2013 to 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, a half percent below where it ended up atthe end of 2012.
Portland/Vancouver /Beaverton vacancy rate rose from 2.1 percent in Q2 and
Q3 2013 to 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, a half percent below where it ended up atthe end of 2012.
The Portland metro area tied with Rochester NY for the 14th
lowest vacancy rates among the top 75 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(MSAs). This estimate has moved above the 3.11 percent vacancy rate reported by
the MultifamilyNW Association in its Fall, 2013 survey.
lowest vacancy rates among the top 75 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(MSAs). This estimate has moved above the 3.11 percent vacancy rate reported by
the MultifamilyNW Association in its Fall, 2013 survey.
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ranked #11 with a Q4 2013
vacancy estimate of 4.0 percent, down 0.4 percent from the prior quarter.
vacancy estimate of 4.0 percent, down 0.4 percent from the prior quarter.
The nation’s 15 lowest vacancy rates were as follows:
- Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NJ – 0.0%
- Springfield, MA – 0.9%
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA – 1.9%
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA – 2.7%
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA – 3.2%
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY – 3.4%
- Pittsburgh, PA – 3.5%
- Worcester, MA – 3.7%
- Toledo, OH – 3.8%
- Raleigh-Cary, NC – 3.9
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA – 4.0%
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI – 4.2%
- San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos – 4.4%
- Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA – 4.6% (tie)
- Rochester, NY – 4.6% (tie)
- Baton Rouge, LA
– 4.7%
The
MSA’s with the five highest vacancy rates were as follows:
MSA’s with the five highest vacancy rates were as follows:
- Las Vegas-Paradise, NV – 13.5%
- Birmingham-Hoover, AL – 13.8%
- Austin-Round Rock, TX – 13.9%
- Tulsa, OK – 14.1%
- Memphis, TN-AR-MS – 15.8%
Average
national rental vacancy rates for Q4 2013 was 8.2% and was 0.5% lower than a
year earlier and 0.1% lower than Q3 2013. The rental vacancy rate has been
falling fairly consistently since 2009. It is at its lowest level since Q1 2001
and far below the Q3 2009 high water mark of 11.1%.
national rental vacancy rates for Q4 2013 was 8.2% and was 0.5% lower than a
year earlier and 0.1% lower than Q3 2013. The rental vacancy rate has been
falling fairly consistently since 2009. It is at its lowest level since Q1 2001
and far below the Q3 2009 high water mark of 11.1%.
The Census Bureau statistics compare to private research firms Axiometrics’ and
Red Capital Research (RCR) as follows:
Portland Metro Vacancy Rate – Forecasts | Red Capital Research | Axiometrics | Reis* | Multifamily NW | US Census |
2012 | 2.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | Q4 5.2% |
2013 | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.11% | Q4 4.6% |
2014 | 2.8%F | 5.1%F | 3.2%F | – | – |
*4 Quarters, averaged
F = Forecast
Portland Metro effective rent growth
estimates & forecasts
estimates & forecasts
Effective Rent Growth – Forecast | Red Capital Research | Axiometrics | Reis | MPF Research |
2012 | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% |
2013 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% |
2014 | 3.4%F | 3.4F | 3.6%F | 4.8%F |
F=Forecast
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